طراحی مدل معادلات ساختاری و تلفیقی علل و اثرات تغییر کاربری اراضی کشاورزی در ایران بر اساس دیدگاه کارشناسان سازمان امور اراضی کشاورزی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

3 پژوهشگر ارشد دانشگاه گنت بلژیک

چکیده

تغییر کاربری اراضی کشاورزی یکی از چالش‌های اساسی پیش روی بشر در قرن 21 است که به دلیل ارتباط مستقیم آن با موضوعات مختلف اقتصادی، اجتماعی و محیط زیستی از جایگاه والایی برخوردار است. این تغییرات در یک‌سو، متأثر از علل درهم تنیده و مختلف و در سوی دیگر منتج به آثار گوناگونی است که جامعه بشری را به چالش کشیده است. وخامت موضوع به‌ویژه با توجه به کاهش 46/1% سرانه اراضی قابل کشت در جهان و 054/2% در ایران (از 1970 تا 2009) بیشتر نمایان می‌گردد؛ بنابراین، بررسی علل و آثار این تغییرات و تحلیل روابط بین آن‌ها، بسیار حائز اهمیت بودهو می‌تواند راهگشای سیاست‌گذاران، برنامه‌ریزان و تصمیم‌سازان این حوزه باشد. تحقیق حاضر با همین هدف به روش مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری و تلفیقی انجام شد. جامعه آماری این تحقیق کارشناسان و متخصصین این حوزه و ابزار جمع‌آوری داده‌ها پرسشنامه بود. بر اساس نتایج این مطالعه، علل تغییر کاربری اراضی کشاورزی در پنج گروه (اقتصادی، اجتماعی، محیط‌زیستی، فنی و سیاستی برنامه‌ای) و اثرات آن در سه گروه (اقتصادی، اجتماعی و محیط‌زیستی) قابل تقسیم‌بندی است. این علل و آثار دارای همبستگی متقابل مستقیم و غیرمستقیم با یکدیگر بوده که برهم اثرگذارند. از دید کارشناسان، مؤثرترین علل و آثار تغییر به ترتیب علل اقتصادی و آثار اجتماعی هستند. از سوی دیگر، در سمت علل، علل فنی و در سمت آثار، آثار اجتماعی، دارای بالاترین میانگین همبستگی با سایر علل و آثار هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Design of Structural Equation and Integrated Causes and Effects Model of Agricultural Land Use Change in Iran According to the Experts’ View of Agricultural Land Organization

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Akbar Barati 1
  • Ali Asadi 2
  • Khalil Kalantari 2
  • Hossein Azadi 3
چکیده [English]

Agricultural Land Conversion (ALC) is one of the main challenges of humankind in 21 century which is very important because of its direct relations with the other issues include economic, social and environmental aspects. On the one hand, the trend of such changes is influenced by many intertwined and different causes and on the other hand, consequences have led to challenges toward human life. The problem becomes more acute if we know that the per capita of arable land in the world, from 1970 to 2009, has declined 1.46 percent. This decrease for Iran has been about 2.054 percent. Therefore, determining the causes and effects of these changes and analyzing their relationships are very important and it could help policymakers, planners and decision-makers. This is the main object of this study. Structural equation modeling and multiple indicator–multiple cause (MIMIC) models were used as analytical methods. The study group consisted of experts and professionals of agricultural land use. Questionnaire was data collection equipment. The results showed that, the causes of agricultural land use changes could be classified in five (economic, social, environmental, technical and political) and its effects in three (economic, social, environmental) groups. Also, the causes and effects have a significant correlation with each other; they affect each other in both direct and indirect ways. According to experts view, the most effective cause and effect of ALC have been economic and social, respectively.Moreover, in the causes side, technical causes have been the highest average correlation with the other factors, but, in the effects' side, social effects have been the highest average correlation with the other causes and effects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land Use Change
  • Agricultural Lands
  • Causes of Changes
  • Effects of Changes
  • structural equation modeling

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