نقش ادراک کشاورزان نسبت به آسیب‌پذیری و تصمیم به تغییر شیوه معاش در شرایط خشکسالی: مورد مطالعه شهرستان کمیجان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

2 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی - دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشجوی دکتری ترویج کشاورزی، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

تغییر شیوه معاش یکی از راهکارهای سازگاری کشاورزان با خشکسالی محسوب می ­شود. در این رابطه، تحقیق حاضر با هدف بررسی نقش ادراک کشاورزان نسبت به آسیب‌پذیری و اتخاذ راهکار تغییر شیوه معاش انجام شد. تحقیق از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر گردآوری داده ‏ها، میدانی و پیمایشی می‏ باشد. جامعه آماری تحقیق حاضر متشکل از خانوار­های روستایی ساکن در شهرستان کمیجان بود که طی 10سال گذشته در معرض خشکسالی قرار داشتند (1000=N). حجم نمونه برابر 200 خانوار با استفاده از فرمول دانیل تعیین شد که سرپرست­ های این خانوارها به روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده انتخاب شدند. روش اصلی تحلیل داده­ ها، رگرسیون لجیستیک دو وجهی بود. متغیرهای ادراک کشاورزان از آسیب‌پذیری و مشکلات احتمالی تغییر شیوه معاش به‌عنوان متغیر مستقل مورد توجه قرار گرفتند. متغیر دو وجهی تصمیم به تغییر شیوه معاش نیز متغیر وابسته تحقیق بود. تابع لجیت به‌دست‌آمده برای تفکیک دو سطح متغیر وابسته تحقیق، درستی تفکیکی در حد 69/2 درصد را نشان داد. بر اساس تابع به‌دست‌آمده مشخص شد که افزایش آسیب‌پذیری درک شده به کاهش تمایل به تغییر شیوه معاش منجر شده و سبب اتخاذ راهبرد انفعالی (باقی ماندن در شرایط فعلی) شده است. همچنین آگاهی کشاورزان از مشکلات مالی احتمالی، مانع تغییر شیوه معاش نیست. این در حالی است که فقدان حمایت­ های آموزشی مانع تغییر شیوه معاش شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Role of Farmers’ Perception on Vulnerability and Decision to Change Livelihoods in Drought Crisis: A Case of Komijan County

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hosein Shabanali Fami 1
  • Amir Alambeigi 2
  • Saeideh Azizi 3
1 Professor, Department of Agricultural Management and Development College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension & Education, Faculty of Agricultural Economics & Development, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran
3 Ph.D. Student in Agricultural Extension, Department of Agricultural Extension & Education, Faculty of Agricultural Economics & Development, respectively, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Changing livelihoods is one of the strategies for farmers' adaptation to drought. In this regard, current empirical research was conducted to investigate the role of farmer's perception of vulnerability and adopt livelihood change strategy. This applied research was conducted as a survey research. The statistical population is comprised of thousands of rural households living in the Komijan County, which have been subjected to drought over the past ten years. Which of them, 200 households were randomly selected using Daniel's sampling formula. The main statistical method was the logistic regression. Farmers' perception of vulnerability and the problems caused by changing livelihoods was independent variables and dichotomous variable, decision to change livelihood, were the dependent variable of the research. Estimated logit function showed 69.2% classification accuracy. Based on the mentioned function, it was found that the upper limit of the perceived vulnerability could result in reduction in the tendency to change livelihoods and to adopt a passive strategy (remaining in the current situation). It was also found that farmers' awareness of potential financial risks in the process of changing livelihoods is not an obstacle. It was also found that the lack of educational support for changing livelihoods prevented the change in livelihoods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • Change in Livelihood
  • Farmer Perception
  • Komijan County

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